Category Archives: Predictions

DRAFT – Unix & Linux my predictions in 90’s – results!

My predictions about Unix and Linux last decade

I predicted Unix and Linux would never be viable on the Desktop in short term, a decade ago. I thought it would do well in devices/appliances where they did not need a GUI, they had a custom minimal GUI. Well Windows dominated the desktop in the short term as I though as Linux grew on the server side. Although .NET put the biggest dent in Java’s rise to power, and made it into a Coke-Pepsi war.

I was right about short term, and wrong. Desktop is rising (FINALLY) and Server is a good place for Linux thanks to Big Data DBMS systems (the so-called noSQL or SQL+ systems)

Where we are at now on Desktop

  • ¬†Macs are powered by Unix (FREE BSD) under the covers. But with a friendly GUI and App store for Desktop apps Linux should be jealous of.
  • Chromebooks are finally starting to sell well and there are some amazing low priced high power ChromeBooks with lots of pixels.
  • Linuxes like Ubuntu are friendly. Not friendly enough on the install and upgrades (have your techie friends install and upgrade it) but a lot of friendly apps are available that are identical to PC apps, and even some unique ones not on the PC.

Thanks to

  • Oracle VirtualBox and other VMs people can run Windows and Windows app on their Linux desktops to run whatever corporate software they need to, or unique apps only available on Windows.
  • The fact that Chrome and IE have stolen Internet explorer’s thunder Browsing which is now the #1 use by many is now most safely done on Linux and with a lighter footprint Operating system, usually faster on same hardware running Windows.

Computer Appliances, Internet of Things (IOT)
& Wearables – powered by Linux

  • Android is Linux powered. Of course it has a very friendly GUI on top and tons of apps. And even friendlier phone GUIs and Task Launchers provided by the MFR.
  • iDevices are powered by Unix (Free BSD) under the covers
  • Most Streaming TV Devices and DVRs are Linux powered.
  • E-Readers (kindle Paper-White and Voyager notably) are powered by Linux
  • Smart Watches, Fitness Bands are powered by Linux

Linux on the Server – where it shines!

Server Linux is certainly got a lot more tools than Windows server for security and administration. For example:

  • Some free and super cheap clustering databases run on Linux
  • ASP.net 5.x is a first-class Linux and Mac platform now thanks to Open sourcing of the stack and lots of work to make it super portable.

So What Next for Linux? My predictions: now – 2020

Here is the predictions:

  • Hopefully Ubuntu and Mint will get friendlier and more robust installs that do not require a genius to resolve installation issues.
  • Linux needs a better super easy multi-boot tool like Bootcamp but for n Windows and n Linuxes. Should be so easy an end user can use it.
  • Chromebook is not a true Linux (no desktop apps) but will seduce a bunch of people into liking the idea of Linux.
  • The Server Cloud will encourage more people to use Linux to avoid the pricey Windows server licensing fees. Asp.net 5.x and onward supporting it will be a major factor for cheap companies wanting to save a buck.
  • The Big Data databases will gain traction as people realize they are FREE (or super cheap) and cluster BETTER than SQL Server (and SQL Server clustering license costs are obscene)
  • Android laptops may make quite a splash (depends on how effective MS is at pressuring PC makers to not dual boot Android) since a ton of Android apps exist and growing all the time.

 

Where can I read more?

Several places, but here are my favorites:

  • xxx
  • xxx
  • xxx

I have Linux Troubles where can I get help?

Several places, but here are my favorites:

  • xxx
  • xxx
  • xxx

Happy Computing! – Chaz

 

Disruptive Technolgies – my past and present predictions

Years ago when the Technology world looked like this:

  • DOS
  • Wordperfect, Lotus, Harvard Graphics, dBase
  • Novell Netware and Lantastic
  • Netscape and Java and Beans
  • Lotus Notes
  • Gem / Ventura Publisher

I predicted that they would be taken out by disruptive technologies:

  • Windows
  • Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access
  • IE and ASP/ASP.net
  • Other cloud technologies would obliterate Lotus Notes
  • I knew DTP would die in deference to WYSIWYG Word Processing because Quark and PageMaker killed their category by over pricing.

Now I have a set of predictions for this decade that really pisses people off when they read them ….

Disruptive Technologies – what will happen in 2015 – 2020

crystal-ball-future-quote

My predictions for Computing Future

Introduction

My prediction for the next 5-10 years really pisses people off which is my sign I have a great set of predictions this round.

pcguy_death

MS Windows for Consumers

Consumers are using their Tablets and Phones as personal computers. And buying Macs and Chromebooks in record numbers.

  • MS-Windows has died for consumers. Only belongs to high end gamers and IT cogs/drones and stubborn programmers. Unfortunately for them they don’t control technology trends they get run over by them.
  • Android and iOS and Mac and Chromebooks will duke it out with Windows machine for personal use at first, and next in Corporate America with Windows losing at every turn.

MS Windows in Corporate America

Corporate America will be using Windows but over time will replace their Windows OS servers and server apps, and worker’s machines and software with FREE or Cheap alternatives including cloud solutions. Mostly because of TCO Issues.

  • SQL Server and Access may rule the roost now but as programmers learn and explore noSQL and SQL+ alternatives (Hadoop, MongoDB, Couch DB) that are cluster ready and dirt cheap and just more scalable.
  • Chrome and FireFox will continue to reduce Internet Explorer market share and corporations for security and feature reasons will switch and even Government offices.
  • Outlook exchange will continue to face challenges from Domain Gmail and if Google or any Cloud Vendor perfects Calendar and scheduling Outlook is ripe to be replaced on the client and server.

 

cloud_computing1

The Cloud

  • Cloud apps will wipe out Desktop apps.
  • iOS and Android apps will duke it out and co-operate with Cloud apps.
  • The loser here will be Windows Desktop apps.

open-source-software-industry

Open Source and Linux

  • Open Source will continue the trend of FREE software, and Paid packages with support which will hurt Microsoft whose FREE software is more crippled and FREE licenses too restrictive.

Gaming Consoles

  • Consoles except for tiny ones like Vita and 3Ds will die, killed by the cloud.
  • PC games will need to become cloud based so Tablet Apps can run well on them.
  • App sales will outnumber console game sales and PC games sales by a wide margin.

Of course I will update my blog (with other blog entries I will link to) as some of these predictions come to pass, and to swallow my pride and admit which ones missed the marks.